If you are among the group of us that enjoys the NFL Draft just as much - if not more - than the actual NFL games, you'll appreciate this post about the NFL Combine and workout numbers. If you're real hardcore and actual visit the draft sites religiously, this may be redundant.
Overall, the talent in this year's draft is below average. It appears stronger than the notoriously lousy 2005 draft where Alex Smith was drafted No.1, yet it pales in comparison to last year's draft class, a group that may have several future All-Pros (Texans MLB Demeco Ryans, Packers OLB A.J. Hawk, Ravens DT Haloti Ngata), a trio of 10-year NFL starting quarterbacks (Titans' Vince Young, Broncos' Jay Cutler, Cardinals' Matt Leinart), and very few notable busts.
Anyway, the big winners in the off-season workout programs are:
1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: Possibly the most gifted wide receiver to ever enter the NFL Draft, Johnson added to his legend by running a 4.35 at the combine. And he did that with a borrowed pair of shoes. A 4.35 isn't the fastest wide receiver time, but for a guy who is 6'3", 221 lbs., it's pretty special. Randy Moss supposedly ran a 4.25 in college, but Johnson doesn't have any character issues. He seems too good to be true, which means he probably is. But for now, he's indisputably the most gifted player in the draft. He'll be taken in the Top 4.
2. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas: Houston will win the Mike Mamula / Troy Williamson Combine Workout Warrior Award. He junior from Arkansas ran a 4.32 and benched press 225 a lot more times than a cornerback. He'll end up somewhere in the first round.
3. Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss: Willis ran a 4.45 in the 40-yard dash and put to rest any notion that'd he'd fall to the second round. Most draft observers say he won't last past Carolina at 14th and will probably be off the board sooner. Like Johnson, he has no known character negatives.
4. Chris Henry, RB, Arizona: Not to be confused with the mercurial wide receiver for Cincinnati, Henry is a freakishly athletic running back who turned pro after his junior season. He's a 6'1", 235 lbs. and runs a 4.4 40.
5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: Peterson has run his 40 times between 4.35 and 4.40, really good numbers for a guy who is considered more of a power back. His stellar performances haven't done too much for his draft stock though. He seems to be the victim of timing, with most of the teams drafting at the top already having running backs or having a much greater need at another position. He still shouldn't fall past 12th overall.
The big losers in the off-season workout programs are ...
1. Ted Ginn Jr., WR. Ohio State: When you're billed as the fastest guy on North America since Ben Johnson, you probably should prove it in workouts. Unfortunately for Ginn, he's injured, and unless he can get back to 100% in time to have some good workouts before draft day, the chance of Ginn landing in the Top 10 is zero. Ginn would make me nervous.
2. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Southern Cal: He didn't work out at the combine. I could see this guy dropping to the second round. Yes, he's big, but so was Southern Cal's Mike Williams, and that hasn't worked out real well just yet. The word got out that he's been running around a 4.7 in the 40-yard dash practice times. Again, you can't read into 40 times too much, but a 4.7 raises legitimate red flags. To add insult to injury, The Sporting News compares Jarrett to former UCLA wide receiver J.J. Stokes, which is a slap in the face, or if you are Bill Romanowski, a spit in the face.
3. Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal: Once predicted to be the top corner in the draft, Hughes ran an awful 40 time and has dropped from the 1st round to the 2nd or possibly even the third.
4. Chris Leak, QB, Florida: Ran a 4.7 instead of the 4.5 he claimed. Measured under 6 feet tall. Rumored to have scored an 8 on the Wonderlic test. The national championship-winning quarterback may not be drafted.
PAST PERFORMANCES
Be wary of 40-yard dash times for NFL Quarterbacks. Drew Bledsoe (pictured at left) ran his 40 in 4.7. Tony Romo ran his in 5.01.
Be careful with running backs too. Jamal Lewis ran a 4.38, so even a little age, injury, or drug conviction can transform a runner from a track star to a tortoise.
The most impressive past 40 time I've seen comes from 1997, when Florida State Left Tackle Walter Jones ran a 4.58. Jones was drafted by the Seahawks that year and now is among the NFL's best at the position. Jones' time should be a warning sign for any team looking to draft a wide receiver with 4.6 speed. Your left tackle shouldn't be out-sprinting your flanker.
Now, granted, all the poking and prodding is overdone. And how much can you measure potential by looking at how a football player runs 40 yards without shoulder pads and a helmet. There have to be better measures for potential, yet if there were, the NFL types - generally, a smart and savvy bunch of people - would have discovered it by now and would have shelved the 40-yard dash.